Abstract:

SHAPE is a comparatively new forecasting technique which was not commercially available at the time our original work was undertaken. This technique has certain features which potentially make it an attractive forecasting technique for use with new products. This paper therefore demonstrates its use in forecasting pharmaceutical markets. Although SHAPE uses advanced statistical techniques which, in part, are based on Bayesian statistical principles, specialised knowledge of these techniques is net required of the user. It is not the intention of this paper, therefore, to explore the underlying statistical techniques in any detail but to demonstrate its use so the reader can decide himself whether to evaluate the technique more fully on his own data.