Utilisation of a risk analysis model to determine the opportunity for a firm to get into a new market

Date of publication: August 1, 1971

Author: G. Fabian


The "Risk Analysis model" used by our company after David B. Hertz' and Mac Kinsey's specialists reports, was specially helpful at a time of preliminary studies we did before coming to the decision to launch a serie of new floor care products in France. The aim of its utilisation is to determine in what proportions objectives fixed by the Top Management can be reached, and what will be the profit or the return on investment. Here is the peculiar character of this method : instead of stating some suppositions in an inevitably limited quantity, about the variables which are going to influence the results, we determine for each supposition a graphic curve of distribution by seeking out the probability of having an established value.

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