What can indicators of consumer mood do towards providing an annual forecast of economic activity in a given sector?

Date of publication: June 15, 1984

Author: Dieter Schmid

Abstract:

This contribution considers the capability of different indicators of the overall consumer mood to make predictions about the building-savings market in the Federal Republic—the Allensbach Indicator and the Consumer Climate Index of the Forschungsstelle fur empirische Sozialskonomik (Prof. Dr. G. Schmolders) e.V., Cologne. Both of these key indicators clearly precede developments in the building-savings sector; with a correlation coefficient of r>0.8, and 70% accuracy, the forecast provided by these factors is far better than anticipated but, nonetheless, not completely satisfying.

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