Analyzing and forecasting world markets

Date of publication: September 1, 1974

Author: Andrew C. Gross

Abstract:

This paper cites specific problems encountered in gathering and analyzing secondary data related to world markets and in using such information for preparing long-range forecasts. After a brief, general discussion on published market statistics, the report focuses on four major case studies dealing with the world market for appliances, computers, plastics, and motor vehicles. The present report shows how one must painstakingly gather the most elementary economic and market information from various sources, how the gaps and errors in the data are resolved, and how the statistics are fitted together through a conceptual framework. The techniques used for building consistent historical time series and for making long-range forecasts are discussed. Then, each case study serves as an illustration of the manner in which general rules are applied to specific problems.

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