Abstract:
The effectiveness of three commonly used methodologies for market size estimation, as well as their accuracy in explaining the future behavior of the automobile market in Ecuador, is addressed in this presentation. These methodologies are Delphi forecast based on local expertise, Cross sectional linear regression, and Time series modeling of sales. Data of car sales ranging between 1990 and 2009 was used to compare the performance of these three methodologies. We found that Experto Forecast performs very well in the short term, while Time Series Modelling fits better the behavior of the market for medium term predictions.
This could also be of interest:
Research Papers
The dangerous quest for certainty in market forecasting
Catalogue: Seminar 1977: Foresight Or Hindsight?
Authors: Michael M. Menke, Jacques P. Pezier
 
March 1, 1977
Research Papers
Effective communication in a crowded television environment
Catalogue: ESOMAR/ARF Worldwide Broadcast Audience Research Symposium 1992
Author: Robert Warrens
 
June 15, 1992
Research Papers
Decision making in a changing environment
Catalogue: ESOMAR Congress 1979: The Challenge Of Eighties
Authors: Michel Barjanski, Jean-Philippe Faivre, Jean-Paul Frappa
 
June 15, 1979
