Forecasting indexes

Date of publication: August 1, 1971

Company: IFOP

Author: B. Roche

Abstract:

In 1970, we, at IFOP/ETMAR, worked on perfecting the computation of indexes from opinion surveys. By experience, we knew how important psychological phenomena reveal to explain the evolution of economic realities such as the successful launching of a new product or the general economic situation. The indexes are built up with a method using factor and multiple regress analyses, which made it possible to select a limited number of questions as the synthetical index computation basis. The fluctuations of these indexes as time passes are a valuable source of information to better understand present time as well as the future. They make it possible to anticipate on the actual facts and take appropriate action at the right time. In the following paper, IFOP/ETMAR describes its main indexes and explains their purpose.

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