Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to examine how pharmaceutical forecasting is currently conducted, from different clients' perspectives, to stimulate discussion and to make recommendations about how the practice could be improved. Pharmaceutical forecasting, indeed any forecasting, is viewed by the majority of people we have spoken to, as being one of the more difficult tasks they undertake. There appears to be a considerable amount of mystique surrounding forecasting and it is our objective, within the realms of this paper, to de-mystify pharmaceutical forecasting. The paper is divided into three parts. The first part examines how pharmaceutical forecasting is currently conducted for both pipe-line and marketed products, and is based upon the combined views of executives from twelve major pharmaceutical companies, both in Europe and the USA. The second part describes an original piece of ad hoc marketing research which we conducted to collect information to build a forecast for a product in development in the neurology field. The final part explores views about how pharmaceutical forecasting should be conducted and makes some recommendations about how it could be improved.