Forecasting shipbuilding capacity and potential output in the leading countries of the world

Date of publication: September 1, 1966

Author: C. Gray

Abstract:

This technique of Industrial Market Forecasting was developed from and is illustrated by a survey and forecast of the output and capacity of the ship building industry of eleven leading centres of the world, undertaken in October 1963. The. survey revealed cyclic movements or a basic rhythm in the output expressed in launchings and completions of ships in the world, and equally in the respective countries where this industry constituted a basic industry. By anticipating and charting the troughs, peaks, amplitudes, down swings and up-swings of the cycles within a given phase of development of the industry, it was possible to forecast capacity and calculate output within this framework.

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