New product sales forecasting recent bases model experiences in Europe and in the United States

Date of publication: June 15, 1982

Abstract:

This paper shows that a standardised concept/in-home use test, if properly designed, executed and interpreted, can provide a very accurate data base for forecasting new product sales volume and its sales components. To reduce the risk of introducing a product failure into the marketplace, the application of an early and accurate New Product Sales Forecasting Model is essential for many major manufacturing companies in the U.S. and Western Europe. This paper describes, in detail, the test procedure and estimating process for a 'BASES II' test (a standardised concept/in-home use test) and presents some recent actual case validation results on Year One ; Trial Rate, Repeat Rate and Consumer Sales Volume Estimates. These are compared with Actual Test Market or National Launch Sales Volume Results. This recent data comes from France, Italy and the United States. Validation results from other European countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Holland) are also included.

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