Abstract:

In the work discussed in this paper, a Delphi forecast that had been made in 1969 was examined in detail. Contributors to this study were re-contacted and asked to review their predictions in the light of their experience in the intervening years and, with the benefit of hindsight, to assess the success or otherwise of the Delphi approach. The results of this exercise cast considerable doubts upon the value of the original study. The forecasts that had been made were seen to be over-optimistic and it was apparent that many of the contributors had become thoroughly disillusioned with the whole project. The paper attempts to establish why this should have been so and to suggest what lessons can be learnt concerning the conduct and interpretation of any future studies of this nature.