Problem of fact finding and prediction in the marketing of farm products

Date of publication: May 1, 1968

Author: Gunther Schmitt


Throughout this paper, our attention was intentionally focused on the problems and difficulties with which agricultural policy is faced in regard to the 1possibilities and limitations of structural transformation. These were studied in the light of experience gained with the use of forecasting models. We did not by any standards explore all the alternative avenues, of such meaningful interpretations as can be given to the results of work with this technique. It appears, however, that both individual entrepreneurs engaged in the marketing of farm product and the empirical market researchers who advise them, can derive from these forecasts important pointers to entrepreneurial decisions. The estimates of future developments in supply and demand are particularly suitable for reducing the field of unknown and uncertain elements in the business calculations of farmers, food processors, merchants and co-operatives. Such forecasts assist them in their decisions relating to production, distribution and investment and can make, thereby, an important contribution to dissipating the uncertainties that surround a competitive market economy.

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