Abstract:

This paper describes a model that has been designed to give tour operators insight into: - the number of tourists taking a foreign holiday the coming summer; - the countries they will be going to; - the extent to which they will use tour operators. The model can only be used for the short term - the insight into the coming summer holidays must be available the previous October because that is the moment aircraft seats, bungalows, apartments etc. have to be booked. The model has been constructed from the results of annual quantitative surveys. The number of holidays is estimated based on these and the plans for the coming summer holiday. Further details such as the country of choice and the number of package tours are determined using a analysis in which holiday makers are segmented. These segments appear to have a strong influence on distribution by country and whether or not a package tour is chosen. Finally, certain corrections can be applied using a comparison over a number of years of package tours planned with package tours actually taken.